Joe’s Weather Blog: Unusual 2 day storm to affect the region (TUE-10/26) –

It wasn’t exactly a pretty day yesterday as low clouds stuck around in KC for the entire day and really most of the overnight as well. Today won’t be a lot better although at least we’ll see a bit of sunshine for a part of the morning…it should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday though.

This is a set-up for a somewhat unusual 2 day storm that will start affecting us towards daybreak tomorrow…severe weather is likely with this out towards the Plains and southern Plains…we won’t deal with that…but we we be dealt 1-3″ of widespread rain that may linger into early Friday before we finally chase the storm away and set-up for a decent and seasonable weekend.

Also of note in the blog is the dramatic video link to the Purdin tornado (EF2) and also some of the other tornadoes that affecting the MO side on Sunday. One other note…a cold plunge of air is likely early next week…perhaps bringing our first freeze and/or hard freeze to the area at some point depending on the cloud cover situation.



Today: Once again mostly cloudy and cool with highs in the 55-60° range. Windy this afternoon

Tonight: Cloudy with showers possible towards daybreak. Lows closer to 52°. Breezy as well

Tomorrow: Off and on rain with a few rumbles possible. Highs in the mid to upper 50s

Thursday: Windy with rain. Temperatures only in the lower 50s. We could see 30-40 MPH wind gusts



Interesting weather coming into the Plains over the next few days…and also into early next week. The timing of everything though looks like it should work out for the weekend and also for Sunday night in terms of the trick or Treat activities…can’t promise though as ideal conditions for the football game on Monday day…chillier for sure…and hopefully that’s it.

Before we get to that though…more information regarding the tornadoes in northern MO from Sunday. The strongest tornado was the one that affected Purdin, MO. That was rated as an EF2 tornado.

Our preliminary damage survey results are in for the Purdin, MO tornado yesterday.

The tornado has been rated an EF-2 with estimated max winds of 120 mph. The tornado started at 4:31 PM and ended at 5:18 PM.

Fortunately there were no injuries or deaths.

— NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) October 25, 2021

This thing was pretty impressive and one chaser got the whole tornado. Here is the link

Purdin, MO Tornado video.

Other tornadoes happened as well.

A second tornado has been found in Livingston County, MO about 6 miles northwest of Chillicothe (near the intersection of HWY 190 and CR 525).

This looks like it was a brief EF-0 tornado with peak winds at 80 mph.

— NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) October 25, 2021

A storm survey found evidence of another (very) brief EF-0 tornado southwest of Pattonsburg (near intersection of Haven Road and 115th Street) in northwestern Daviess County, MO.

This brings us up to 5 confirmed tornadoes so far.

— NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) October 25, 2021

I did see this video from a tornado near Mirable, MO…I don’t think this has been rated yet.

Mirable Tornado video

Also I did get a picture from the tornado that happened near the Airport in Sedalia. At the time the airport reported winds gusting to 45 MPH. Pic via Paul Daves

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Other tornadoes happened…we haven’t gotten the report of the Doniphan Co, KS tornado yet…that was the one that started the whole thing off. Others will be added to the count…at least 5 or 6 so far…more to be added today I’m sure.

The worst tornadoes were down towards SE MO south of St Louis…including an EF3 tornado that affected Farmington, MO

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Today/tonight the main threats will be west and southwest of the KC region…from central KS south into Oklahoma and northern TX.

OK swody1

This will mostly be a wind/hail event but as things start blowing up near sunset there may be some tornadoes in the far western side of the “enhanced” area.

What develops there will be moving east and then a bit northeast. I think the hi-res NAM has a decent handle on the evolution of the incoming rain into the KC area before daybreak tomorrow.

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For timing. 0Z is 7PM…6Z is 1AM…12Z is 7AM and 18Z is 1PM

Notice even on the last frame, which is noon on Thursday it’s still hanging around…and the NAM has been the fastest in terms of moving things along…my feeling is that the rain may linger into early Friday before we start drying out in the morning on Friday and clearing out in the afternoon.

Also of note on this, for Thursday…is the strong winds connected to this impressive storm. Winds a few thousand feet up will be running 50-60 MPH or so…in eastern KS. It may not be that windy here on the ground but 35-45 MPH winds, in gusts, wouldn’t shock me with this set up on Thursday.

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Wind Gusts on the EURO model for Thursday at 1AM…note eastern KS
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Wind gusts at 1PM Thursday…now spreading towards KC

This is all coming about because of an impressive storm that has been affecting the western US. It’s a breakoff the the record setting storm that hit CA and the PAC NW over the weekend.

You can see it spinning in the Rockies…

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That storm will come into the southern Plains and then move through AR over the coming days.

As we go up to about 18,000 feet or so…you can see the system evolving.

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In the winter we’d likely be dealing with a rain to blizzard from this. The track is pretty favorable. The rain that we deal with on Thursday afternoon and evening would have been snow IF there was cold air around for this to work with…which there isn’t. So we’d start with about 1″ of rain and then see 4-10″ of wind blown snow that you couldn’t measure accurately because of the wind!

Tell you what…if you repeat this overall pattern of the last 10 days in the winter season…snow lovers will be very happy with how things evolve this winter.

Speaking of IF this was a winter storm…the Northeast is getting a big ole Nor’easter today.


The system that gave us the rain/severe weather Sunday is has transferred it’s energy to the coast and a new area of low pressure is developing. Here is some information from the New England area.

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The strongest winds will be towards the Cape region.

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Through tomorrow afternoon

So we have a powerhouse in the NE part of the country…we have a soon to be impressive storm in the Plains…and finally we likely have a cold air dump heading this way for early next week. More in this on Thursday or Friday.

The set-up is a classic one…big ridge in western Canada poking up into the NW Territories…big trough in the Great Lakes region…cold air dumping into the back side of the trough…both the maps below are for 7AM Tuesday next week.

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.November starts chilly to cold and IF we have clear skies Tuesday AM and/or Wednesday AM…temperatures will be tanking.

The feature photo is the tornado that happened on the east side of Sedalia via Paul Daves

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