Joe’s Weather Blog: Spring storm leaves…winter storm comes (SUN-3/6) – WDAF FOX4 Kansas City

A rare Sunday blog for you today but the weather changes dictate the blogs…and if there’s something to write about…let’s write about it!

Yesterday strong to severe storms moves through the east side of the Metro. Some quarter sized hail was reported and ahead of the line stronger winds were gusting to about 55 MPH…temperatures popped into the mid 70s…and the atmosphere got just unstable enough to create stronger storms as the sun was setting.

Today we start chillier as the cooler air flowed in behind the storm. Our morning low was 27° but as the clouds stream into the area today and a cooler air mass is present…mid to upper 40s are about as good as we can do…

Then it heads quickly downhill later this afternoon and this evening.

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Forecast:

Today: Increasing clouds and chillier with highs near 45°. Rain chances increase after 5PM. There may be some thunder and lightning as well later today.

Tonight: Rain changes over to a wintry mix to snow. Temperatures will drop down into the mid 30s. Snow will start sticking mostly to grassy surfaces and exposed surfaces. It may take longer to stick to the pavement. The conversion will be slowest south and east of I-35. Temperatures eventually fall to the upper 20s to near 30°

Tomorrow: Clearing in the morning then sunny and cool with highs in the upper 30s to near 40°

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and not as cold with highs in the upper 40s.

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Discussion:

I was an interesting day yesterday…numerous tornadoes occurred in Iowa…which will happen in the March/April months with powerful storms…and this one fit the bill. Sadly there were 7 people who lost their lives…and others were injured.

Interesting to note the tornadoes were in IA…and the hail reports were in MO…the stronger wind reports were mostly in IL and into IN

Capture 28

The one supercell had an impressively long rotation track. This DOES NOT mean it was on the ground for that long but it was rotating.

Low level rotation tracks across central and southern Iowa this evening. You can see the long tracked supercell that produced a strong tornado in the Des Moines metro area. Traveled ~150 miles. #IAwx @spann pic.twitter.com/6NL9CQmOwt

— Collin Gross (@CollinGrossWx) March 6, 2022

There are quite a few videos out there…here is just one.

and another…

For us…there were some hail reports…mostly in the dime to quarter sized range. Some pretty cumulonimbus clouds though as the sun was setting…so the backside of the clouds were being illuminated by the setting sun.

Matthew Smith caught a small attempt at a funnel forming near the Higginsville area.

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Video via William Johnston

Onwards…

Here comes the 2nd system.

G16 sector sr band09 24fr 20220306 1102

This is going according to the write up all week long…you can see it coming out of the SW part of the country.

Notice the activity to the SW of KC on radar…it’s zipping towards the NE…

UPPERMISSVLY loop

As we go up to about 18,000 feet we can track the system…it holds together pretty well…

GIF 4

This would actually be a pretty good snowstorm for us…a quick hitter BUT we have temperature issues, especially at the surface…and near the surface.

Today we warm up into the 45° range…which is where we’re going to be around 3PM or so.

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Future radar shows the incoming rain…and maybe some rumbles too.

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For timing this stars at 2PM and goes through 2AM

This should be the bulk of the storm.

The issue is that we should see temperatures in the atmosphere above 32° through about 7 PM or so…so I’m leery about some of the snow totals that the models are throwing out…and the ground may not support accumulations for awhile IF the wintry precipitation in on the light side.

With that said though…areas N/W of I-35 (or thereabouts) may see some heavy snow for a few hours this evening…till before 12AM. That would accumulate…and it’s not out of the question some areas in the Metro could see 1-3″ of snow before 12AM or so…and it would be those big fat wet snowflakes!

That would lead to slushy to snow covered roads where the snow is heaviest…and while the temperatures may be 32-34° in that time period…there may be some slick spots developing before 9PM. Worth paying attention too.

This really could be an interesting night for weather with rapid changes from 4PM through 11PM or so.

There may be some additional lighter snows overnight into early Monday morning.

Areas on the SE side of the Metro may not get this heavier snow for as long…perhaps a couple of hours shorter than the NW side of the Metro. So lighter amounts of snow are likely towards Odessa/Lees Summitt/Harrisonville areas…closer to a dusting to 2″

Fascinating really to go from the mid 70s…almost 80° in some spots of eastern KS yesterday to snow risks this evening in the region.

The arctic air that I wrote about last week is still on schedule for Thursday. Faster timing on this means we go into the arctic air earlier on Thursday…but come out of it later on Saturday BUT there are indications that we could have accumulating snows in the area with this incoming cold. The GFS has a decent snow here while the EURO keeps it north of here Thursday with accumulating snow here later Thursday evening into Friday.

Something is on the table in that timeframe…which makes sense with arctic air blasts in March.

This is going to be another adventurous week of weather in the area!

Tedd Scofield with the feature photo of the day…of the illuminated clouds with the setting sun.

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Joe